Abstract: Examining the Influence of Presumed Media Influence and News Congruency for a Polarized Health Issue

◆ Yangsun Hong, University of New Mexico
◆ Moonsun Choi, University of New Mexico

Building on the third-person effect (Davison, 1985) and persuasive press inference (Gunther, 1998), the influence of presumed media influence (IPI) hypothesis establishes an indirect media influence, which addresses that media exposure affects behavioral responses by shaping a perception of the influence of the media on others (Gunther & Storey, 2003). Many studies have applied the IPI hypothesis to media contents about health behaviors, such as healthy diet, condom use, and smoking cessation, and found that media exposure promotes intention to adopt those behaviors (Gunter et al., 2006; Ho et al., 2016; Hong & Kim, 2020). Message desirability is one of drivers of the effect (Perloff & Shen, 2023; Sun et al., 2008), and these health prevention and promotion behaviors are generally considered desirable and beneficial behaviors.
Given the recent growth in the politicization and polarization of health and life science issues such as vaccine mandates and reproductive health, not all health preventions are considered desirable across people. This phenomenon is also related to the features of current media, such as partisan media, selective exposure, and news algorithms (Hart et al., 2020; Kubin & Sikorski, 2021), which provide people with more opportunities to consume like-minded information, thereby shaping and reinforcing polarized opinions.
This study claims that when applying the IPI hypothesis to a controversial issue, the conventional IPI approach needs to be revisited with considerations of individuals’ pre-existing attitude toward the issue. This study explores the mechanisms of the IPI hypothesis in the context of COVID-19 vaccination. First, considering the current media environment, this study examines whether individuals’ congruency with news media promoting COVID-19 vaccination affects their presumption of the media influence on others. Second, we investigate how personal beliefs about COVID-19 vaccines that are strongly associated with intention for vaccination, such as conspiratorial beliefs (Gillmann et al., 2022) and uncertainty (Wang et al., 2023), moderate the influence of presumed influence on their intention for vaccination.
We conducted an experiment with college students right after the mandatory vaccination policy is lifted. Participants (N = 219) were asked to read a news article promoting COVID-19 booster vaccination. According to previous studies, we manipulated presumption of the media reach, which is an antecedent of presumed influence. The manipulation was successful.
The results support our expectation that one’s pre-existing attitude affects presumed influence as an explanatory factor. One’s perceived congruency with the news article moderates presumed influence of the news article on others. When one encounters news content that is less congruent with their attitude toward vaccination, they presume that the news article will have low influence on others’ intention for vaccination, especially for those who they presume high others’ exposure to the news article. Due to pre-existing attitude and partisan media, they may perceive that the news article is far from (perceived) social consensus of public opinion and general climate of news media about vaccination. Moreover, the results show that the greater presumed influence can increase the intention for vaccination for individuals with high uncertainty and high conspiratorial beliefs about COVID-19 vaccines.